Sports statistics projections are a forecast of how players in a particular sports league will perform as measured by a commonly accepted set of performance statistics for that particular sport, such as the number of passing touchdowns for a quarterback in the NFL. Such projections are used by many companies to provide team management guidance tools for assisting with player selection decisions such as drafting players at the beginning of the fantasy sports season.
The majority of currently available tools for sports statistics projections simply use projected values to compare players and analyze their value when providing guidance to the fantasy sports end-user. Probability distributions are used to model the relationship between projections and the actual results, thus providing more accurate player selection guidance. See, for example, Applicant's own work, U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/520,254, which is incorporated by reference in its entirety. The probability distributions used in current player selection guidance software use normal distribution models to create probability distributions from player statistics projections.
It is recognized that previous models assume all players have equal upside and downside relative to their projected performance regardless of whether they are projected to be a top-tier player or a lower-tier player. In reality, players that are projected to perform at the very top of their respective sports league (top-tier players) generally have a smaller probability of significantly improving compared with the probability of having a degraded performance over the course of a sports season.
Probability distribution-based player selection guidance systems that use a normal distribution model tend to overvalue top-tier players and undervalue lower-tier players and are only able to provide starting lineup guidance based on mean projected values. The system and method of the present invention for creating and using tier-specific, non-normal distributions provides player selection guidance that realistically values top-tier and lower-tier players and provides situational based starting lineup recommendations.